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CROWN HOLDINGS, INC. (CCK)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered a clean beat: adjusted EPS of $2.24 vs S&P Global consensus $1.99*, revenue of $3.20B vs $3.14B*, and EBITDA of $564M vs $538M*, driven by 12% volume growth in European Beverage and strong tinplate performance .
  • Guidance raised: FY25 adjusted EPS to $7.70–$7.80 (from $7.10–$7.50), FY25 adjusted free cash flow to ~$1.0B (from ~$900M), and Q4 adjusted EPS guided to $1.65–$1.75; tax rate ~25% and CapEx trimmed to ~$400M for 2025 .
  • Balance sheet inflection: long‑term adjusted net leverage target achieved at 2.5x; YTD cash returns >$400M via repurchases/dividends, providing scope for continued capital return as leverage holds near 2.5x .
  • Americas Beverage faced softness (Brazil/Mexico) and aluminum delivery premium pressure (denominator effect on margins), partially offset by stable Asia margins (>17%) and flat Transit Packaging income; management expects Brazil to rebound in Q4 .
  • Stock reaction catalysts: estimate beats and raised FY guidance, record European Beverage performance, deleveraging to target, and capital return flexibility; watch aluminum premium/inflation and LatAm demand into Q4 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • European Beverage posted a record quarter: 12% volume growth, segment income +27% YoY; management: “European beverage posted a record quarter… income 27% above the prior year on the back of 12% volume growth” .
  • Strong operating execution and portfolio balance: segment income +4% YoY to $490M, tinplate improvements, robust cash flow; “the strength of our balanced portfolio drove higher segment income and cash flow” .
  • Leverage and capital returns: long‑term adjusted net leverage target of 2.5x achieved and >$400M returned YTD via buybacks/dividends .

What Went Wrong

  • Americas Beverage softness: volumes down 5% (Brazil −15%, Mexico −15%), North America −3% (Crown underperformed market ~+2% due to customer pruning); minority interest fell with lower Brazil JV profits .
  • Aluminum delivery premium raised the denominator and compressed percentage margins in Americas Beverage (~1.25% impact in Q3); management passes aluminum costs through, so absolute margins remain, but % margins decline .
  • Asia and Transit Packaging volume headwinds: Asia Pacific shipments lower; Transit Packaging equipment/tool sales pressured by tariffs, partly offset by cost reductions and commodity strap resilience .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$3.074 $2.887 $3.149 $3.202
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)$(1.47) $1.65 $1.56 $1.85
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$1.99 $1.67 $2.15 $2.24
EBIT ($USD Millions)$(82) $358 $382 $410
EBIT Margin %(2.7%) 12.4% 12.1% 12.8%
Net Income Attr. to CCK ($USD Millions)$(175) $193 $181 $214
Net Income Margin %(5.7%) 6.7% 5.8% 6.7%
Q3 2025 vs S&P Global ConsensusEstimateActual
Adjusted EPS ($)$1.99*$2.24
Revenue ($USD Billions)$3.136*$3.202
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$538*$564*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment Breakdown (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

SegmentNet Sales Q3 2024 ($MM)Net Sales Q3 2025 ($MM)YoY %Segment Income Q3 2024 ($MM)Segment Income Q3 2025 ($MM)YoY %
Americas Beverage$1,368 $1,417 +3.6%$280 $255 −9.0%
European Beverage$573 $658 +14.8%$86 $109 +26.7%
Asia Pacific$284 $259 −8.8%$50 $44 −12.0%
Transit Packaging$526 $517 −1.7%$70 $70 0.0%
Other$323 $351 +8.7%$27 $51 +88.9%
Corporate/Unalloc.———$(41) $(39) +4.9%
Total$3,074 $3,202 +4.2%$472 $490 +3.8%

KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q3 2025YTD 2024YTD 2025
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($MM)$490 $500 $668 $887
Adjusted Net Leverage (TTM)3.0x (FY24) 2.5x ——
Cash & Equivalents ($MM)$1,738 $1,172 ——
Share Repurchases ($MM)—$105 (Q3) $117 (YTD) $314 (YTD)
Dividend per Share ($)—$0.26 (declared Oct 23, payable Nov 20) ——
CapEx ($MM)$76 (Q3) $92 (Q3) $254 (YTD) $181 (YTD)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted Diluted EPSFY 2025$7.10–$7.50 $7.70–$7.80 Raised
Adjusted Free Cash FlowFY 2025~$900M ~$1.0B Raised
CapExFY 2025~$450M ~$400M Lowered
Adjusted Diluted EPSQ4 2025—$1.65–$1.75 New
Adjusted Effective Tax RateFY 2025~25% ~25% Maintained
Net Interest ExpenseFY 2025—~$350M (net) New
DepreciationFY 2025—~$310M New
FX AssumptionFY 2025—USD $1.13 per € New
Non‑controlling Interest ExpenseFY 2025—~$150M New
Net LeverageFY 2025Target 2.5x ~2.5x (achieved, to remain near) Achieved/Maintained
DividendQ4 2025—$0.26 per share (declared) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2025)Previous Mentions (Q1 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
European Beverage demandShipments strong; segment income +9% YoY; substitution and ops performance Robust volumes; strong Europe contribution +12% volume; +27% segment income; expects firm Q4; long‑term 4–5% CAGR Strengthening; normalization expected
Americas Beverage volumesNorth America +1% shipments Low‑single digit growth better than expected NA −3% (underperformed market ~+2% due to customer pruning); LatAm −15% Brazil/Mexico Weaker; targeted pruning impact
Tariffs/macroMonitoring impacts on consumers/industrial Well‑positioned; tariff pass‑throughs Limited direct impact; indirect effects on demand; Transit equipment/tools impacted; Asia more affected Persistent headwind in select areas
Aluminum delivery premium——Delivered aluminum $2.10/lb; ~1.25% margin impact in Americas Beverage Margin denominator pressure
Transit PackagingResults firm despite tepid industrial production In line; stable Income level YoY; equipment/tool sales pressured; cost reductions offset Stable; awaiting industrial recovery
CapEx & capacity——2025 CapEx ~$400M; 2026 $450–$500M; new lines in Greece early 2026; Germany modernization; Brazil third line Incremental adds to meet demand
Free cash flow & leverageFY guide raised; path to 2.5x FCF ~$800M; leverage target reaffirmed FCF ~$1.0B; leverage at 2.5x; flexibility for buybacks/debt Improving and on target

Management Commentary

  • “Adjusted diluted earnings per share increasing 13% and segment income 4% above a very strong prior year quarter… 12% volume growth in European Beverage, leading to a gain of 27% in European segment income” — Tim Donahue, CEO .
  • “We achieved its long-term adjusted net leverage target of 2.5x… returning more than $400 million to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and dividends” — Tim Donahue, CEO .
  • “Delivered aluminum reached $2.10 a pound… we contractually passed through aluminum, so the increased denominator effect will reduce percentage margins, not absolute margins… ~1.25% impact on America’s beverage margins in Q3” — Management .
  • “European beverage posted a record quarter… as the can continues to gain share across Europe… margins across Asia remained above 17%” — Management .

Q&A Highlights

  • Sustainability of Europe’s growth: management cautioned against extrapolating 12% quarterly volumes, reiterating long‑term 4–5% CAGR; growth driven by substitution and underlying demand, broad‑based across Continental Europe .
  • Americas Beverage EBIT and LatAm impact: aspirational $1B EBIT now achievable in 2025; Brazil impact >$20M in Q3; Mexico −$5–6M; minority interest lowers with Brazil JV profit declines .
  • North America underperformance vs market: −3% vs market ~+2%, attributed to pruning a complex, low‑margin customer; promotions felt less aggressive; consumer demand resilience cited .
  • Tariffs and Transit Packaging: direct tariff headwind ~$10M for 2025; indirect ~$15M from lower equipment/tool orders; cost actions and commodity strap resilience offset .
  • Capital allocation: 2026 CapEx $450–$500M; capacity adds in Greece and Germany; Brazil third line; FCF remains “exceptional,” leverage ~2.5x; opportunistic buybacks depending on price .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 beat across key metrics: Adjusted EPS $2.24 vs $1.99*, revenue $3.20B vs $3.14B*, EBITDA $564M vs $538M* .
  • FY 2025 guidance raised implies upward estimate revisions, with management reiterating tax rate ~25%, net interest expense ~$350M, and depreciation ~$310M supporting clearer model inputs .
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Strong beat and raised FY guidance underscore operating momentum; European Beverage is the principal engine (+12% volumes, +27% income) while tinplate execution improves .
  • Americas Beverage headwinds (Brazil/Mexico) and aluminum delivery premium will compress % margins; absolute margins protected via pass‑through, but monitor inflation/consumer impact into Q4 .
  • Balance sheet is a support: leverage now at 2.5x and likely maintained; cash generation (~$1.0B FY FCF) supports continued buybacks/dividends while addressing 2026 maturities largely with cash .
  • 2026 setup: incremental European capacity (Greece lines early 2026, Germany modernization) and Brazil capacity should enable servicing demand; North America volumes expected up in 2026 post customer pruning .
  • Transit Packaging provides optionality: cost actions and commodity resilience offset tariff‑related equipment softness; upside tied to industrial recovery and tariff clarity .
  • Near‑term trading: narrative anchored on sustained Europe momentum, FY raise, and deleveraging; watch LatAm recovery in Q4, aluminum premium trajectory, and Q4 EPS delivery vs $1.65–$1.75 guide .
  • Medium‑term thesis: durable FCF, disciplined capacity adds, and portfolio balance support capital returns and defensive profile despite tariff/inflation uncertainties .

Appendix: Additional Data Points

  • Q3 net sales drivers: pass‑through of $104M higher material costs and favorable FX $34M, offset by lower LatAm and Asia volumes .
  • YTD adjusted EPS $6.05 vs $4.82 prior year; segment income YTD $1.364B vs $1.217B; operating income YTD $1.179B vs $1.068B .
  • Dividend declared: $0.26 per share payable Nov 20, 2025 (record date Nov 6, 2025) .